17:39 - 30.07.2026

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July 30, Fineko/abc.az. At the end of the July meeting the Bank of England left the base interest rate unchanged - at 3.75%, which coincided with market expectations.

The decision was made by a majority vote (6 to 3). Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee were in favor of raising the rate by 25 basis points.

Key points:

• Inflation forecasts: The regulator's head, Andrew Bailey, noted the need to monitor the situation. According to the baseline scenario, inflation in the UK (currently 2.6%) will peak at 3.2% by the end of the year, after which it will return to the target of 2%.

• Risks: In an unfavorable scenario (oil prices rising above $100 per barrel), inflation could jump to 4.5% by the second quarter of 2027.

• Expectations: The market estimates the probability of a 0.25 p.p. rate hike at the September meeting at more than 50%.